Sunday, March 13, 2011

Tsunami shmunani

Yes the devastation and loss of life is terrible in Japan. Yes it will cost billions to sort out and people's lives will be forever changed. Yes you wouldn't wish it on your worst enemy ( well actually you might)
But there is just a little contarrian view to this.
Japan has been struggling for years with demand problems within it's economy and effectively a 20 plusw year standstill - which amongst other things has allowed C hina to overtake it on one measure of trading power.
Just think for a moment. All that infrastucture and material goods (roads,cars,planes, trains, houses etc etc) will all have to be rebuilt and replaced.The fiscal stimulus will be a geometric size bigger than all the government stimuli over the last umpteen years.
All the money the insurance companies sit on doing nothing will all come out of mothballs, and hey, it'll go into making things and building things and employing people.
I thjink that's what's called a light at the end of the tunnel ( and not a bullet train speeding towards you either)