Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Are property and sex getting better?

We will see if we get closer to ZIRP this afternoon, but the suggestion that "Quantitative easing" may be on the cards i.e. giving us cash in the form of notes shows just how dire things really are.Mugabe is the latest genius to try this, and, although there have been several other imitators over the years, the great German inflation in the '20s remains so seared into the Volk that it's unlikely they will ever stray from financial orthodoxy again.Of course the " Geschaftswunder " of the '60s and '70s was predicated on a 2% growth in monetary aggregates and SAVINGS. Arguably, this was such a successful period that it's benefits are still being felt today, rather as the Thatcher & Major periods gave Brown his lucky streak, according to Tony Blair.
Our feckless leaders, of course, are working in exactly the opposite direction, which means in the end there won't be an early resolution.
There's a straw in the wind though. Property surveyors would appear to have started the year off well, with more instructions and some dead deals being revived. I'm not sure if this is an "early adopter" sign ( commentators have suggested this spring/summer will represent the start of the bottoming out) or just the post Christmas rush. No one ever does anything in December.
Fingers crossed.
PS
A friend confided in me that his girlfriend had texted him as follows:
" xercising on crosstrainer to get fit for hoi sex"
Intrigued, he enquiried if this had anything to do with hoi sin sauce - which he thought might be a) messy and b) interesting.
He was disappointed to learn it was a misspelling, and was meant to be HOL as in holiday sex.
As he said, he sincerely hoped he wouldn't have to wait that long....

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Another salutary tale

On 30th. December, whilst checking her account, a friend discovered her £20,000 overdraft had been withdrawn without any notice.
She had banked with Barclay's ( BARCLAY'S! They're the best off probably) for 40 years, had had the overdraft for several years ( it's called their Evergreen I believe) and it had completely disappeared from one day to the next.
Her mortgage payment was due out on 31st. She had no other immediately available cash. She finally managed to speak to someone ( moral: owe the banks at least £100,000 otherwise no-one will talk to you) who said that in the circumstances, the £19 k could stand for two months - but there would be a fee of £285 and the interest rate would be er 6% over base.Thereafter it would drop to £15000 for 12 months - with a fee of £1000.
So she has gone from no fees and 1.5% over base in one day to effectively £1285 in fees and a more than tripling of the rate she has to pay.
Now ignoring the rights and wrongs of Banks pulling existing deals ( and it's happening hundreds if not thousands of times every day) the point here is that on her overdraft, the Bank has gone from losing about 0.5% on the money it lends her i.e. about £100 pa to making a profit of £2000 or so - which ends up as a rather nice 15% gross return.Which just about gives them a profit.They would, of course, prefer to change her into a term loan which would give them about 18% - and mean that the cash in the now-in-credit current account was effectively being lent back to her....
The Banks have to do this. They cannot lend money for no return, and until this Government gets that idea into their thick skulls there won't be any easing of the credit crisis.
The first recapitalisation and Bank of England lending to the Banks is set at far too high an interest level. The Fed in America has the right idea. Give the Banks free money and they will soon enough get it out to the punters. Arguably this is already happening - and the near 40% drop in house prices there is beginning to attract back buyers, albeit slowly.
So all the talk of the second lot of cash going to the Banks will come to nothing if Brown and Darling don't get it - THE BANKS HAVE TO MAKE MONEY.
The alternative, of course is total nationalisation of the entire banking system and simply giving anyone money and writing off the losses - after all this government believes in the rich paying for the poor ( er, not too sure about that - I suspect the rich and their companies will emigrate). But the conditions that have been attached to the Phase 1 bailout clearly show the government not only does not know the first thing about money, finance,business or even human nature, it is stuck in it's Leftist control dogma - which got us here in the first place.
I have a task for the new Dr. Who...... and this is him

Thursday, December 18, 2008

ZIRP

The fragrant Winchester Whisperer's prediction of zero interest rates has come true. Not only was the US Treasury able to borrow USD32 billion for free, it was able to get a similar amount being paid a miniscule account to hold it. And the Fed promptly dropped its Fed Funds rate to zero as well.
So we are only waiting for the same in UK.
And then all will be well.
Or not.