Monday, December 04, 2006

Tory diehards

And my goodness me, they certainly are dying hard.
The Telegraph had an article today, clearly handed out by Liam Fox, stating that the Shadow Cabinet wanted to ditch all the touchy feely stuff, Francis Maud was too soft, blah blah blah.
Guido had it right when he said these people are insane - they constitute a tiny minority of UK voters and pandering to them would simply hand Brown ( for it will be he) the next election.
What do they want -9% ahead and they are complaining?
The two MUCH more important points are contra-indications.
The first is, once Bliar became Leader of the Opposition, there was no dissent in the ranks. He had his party well in hand ( they had lost 4 after all) and maybe to shut these idiots up WILL take a fourth defeat.
More importantly, Political Betting has an interesting point about how Lib Dems will vote at the next election.
Yes, I know lots of people went from Tory to NuLabour, but just as many went from Tory to LibDem. Those that went to LibDem went because they saw the Tories of 1997 as discredited and out of touch with New Britain. Those that went to NuLabour, went because, er, they saw the Tories of 1997 etc etc. But BOTH lots moved left, and because a) Tony Bliar seemed a pretty straightforward kind of a guy ( good grief ,did he actually say that?) and b) because they wanted the Tories out.
Both those strands have now played out. If anything, the exact opposite swing is happening. There are lots of people who will vote for anyone ( including the BNP) so as the get rid of the people who have betrayed them. Interesting sidelight - Labour always talks of being betrayed by their leaders. Haven't noticed it in the Tories ranks, they tend to betray each other.
And lots of erstwhile Tories, who voted tactically in Tory seats to NOT get a Tory, will vote the other way this time.
It's some years off, but I would bet 1) the Tories will have an overall majority 2) it will be a lot bigger than everyone thinks and 3) the LibDems will be back down, well below 40 seats.

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