Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Northern Wreck

The Times Anatole Kaletsky has an excellent article about the ex-bank.
As he says, there's no new money - it's all out of the taxpayers pocket. It's a bit like when your bank manager phones you up and asks if you are paying in today, and you say yes - from my credit card account.
The crunch rolls on. I take no pleasure in being proved right - 15-20% down in UK and even more in the East and Europe - is not something to be happy about.
I remain optimistic though. The ECB has pumped another $1billion in over the last week, and will surely change rates soon - even if it will eventually lead to the Euro's demise. Italy, Spain and Ireland ( and France to a lesser extent) are all at their wits end with the " strong" Euro, and Spain's entire economy could easily implode as the house sales dry up. Don't forget in America it's only their own people who aren't buying many houses. In Spain, it's everyone, including the Spanish.
The US will drop rates sharply, pump money in AND give tax cuts.
And in the UK? I expect a 20% in real terms decline over 3 years for domestic property. That's roughly what commercial has done already in 6 months.
Remember, you read it here first ( as long as you didn't read it 3 years ago as written by Roger Bootle)

1 comment:

Winchester whisperer said...

GB will have to start organising cheering squads