Friday, October 10, 2008

Volatility & Volume

If today on Wall Street is anything to go by, I'm right about the bottom. OK its marginally lower than I thought but the Dow traded in a range of 1100 points, at one point over 700 points down then up nearly 400, with the third highest number of shares ever traded.
Typically, huge volume churns with wild swings up and down have marked the bottom - or very close to it. The volatility index is at its highest ever - but very similar to when the bottom was reached in 2002.
I'm not for one second suggesting it will be back at 14000 anytime soom - but it WILL get back there. If you care to have a look at the chart and the notes, the really spooky thing is the October 9th Date ( I know todays the 10th but hey)
2002 - Dow post 9/11 low at 7286
2007 - Dow highest ever 14164
2008 - Dow returns to 1998 levels.
And I won't mention 1987 because that was October 19th - biggest percentage one day fall ever of 23%. But the biggest one day points fall was 30th September 2008 - 778
Keep your rabbits foot handy in future between the end of September and beginning of November.
PS
Actually its not that easy to buy stock. The MMs got rid of theirs long ago and are effectively short - so if you want to buy, up goes the price - which is roughly what happened in the States with the huge swing.
PPS
Someone has suggested to me that the reason for keeping the rabbit's foot handy is that if things get much worse we might need to eat it.

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