Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Going Down

I'm trying to keep off the economic stuff as it is too depressing, but all the present indicators point to not a "V" shaped recession, a "W" shaped recession or an "L" shaped recession, but an "L" followed by another "L".
We are presently on the plateau between the two "L"s, which is why people are talking about stability and the like, and it's true, things have levelled off.
But I fear the next step will be heading down again. This is pretty much what happened in the US, and they are about a year ahead of us. There, they are now talking of a real plateau from which economic activity can grow. Their economy, of course, is infinitely more flexible than ours, which is why I am not holding my breath for things to get better. The real bank squeeze is just beginning, and it is a certainty that interest rates will have to start climbing soon - long before any real upturn takes place.
I remain convinced things will fall further until at least the spring of next year before we encounter the real plateau.

2 comments:

Winchester whisperer said...

Sell sterling

kinglear said...

... buy goats..