I'm not sure Political Betting has got the right word here - Calculus was a branch of mathematics that seemed to me to have little relevance to very much. I'm sure someone will correct me.
However, I think it should probably be "Calculation".
This is all because of the most recent polls, giving Dave an actual majority when the election comes.
I have been saying for some time that the Tories would have an overall majority of more than 40, and the LibDems would be back down below 40 seats. On the present poll, it looks like below 20, never mind 40.
I have also predicted NuLabour will effectively disappear and we will be back to Old Labour with a friendly grin ( can't see Gordon being able to do that, can you?) and the LibDems moving further left.
What is quite clear is that Gordon is going to do his damnedest to bowl Dave over, assuming he gets the nod when Bliar goes. As his recent intervention in promulagating the 2016 World Cp shows, people just don't believe or like him. So my bet is, if Gordon faces Dave at the Despatch Box, even more people in this country will NOT vote for him.
There may be ups and downs between now and whenever, but the next election is effectively over.
2 comments:
People are saying that today's poll could indicate a Conservative majority of 100 seats.What's your view on the Scottish election? Will the SNP win?
WW - what's a win? There are a couple of points here eg the Scots are not so stupid as to think they DON'T benefit from the Union. If anything, the Ingies would be very much more for an independant Scotland than the Scots. I think there is every possibility that SNP might be the largest party, but I am willing to bet that Labour and the LibDems will still form the next Scottish whatever it is ( not a government after all). And the Tories might do very much better here than people think ( they usually poll about 6% better than the opinion polls, and if this pertains they COULD be the third largest party. They have some extremely good young candidates. Another point is that the polls today, crunched through Baxter et al, take no account of the differences between Scotland, Wales and England. I've said before that an overall lead of eg 10% is actually about +13% in England and about -6% in Scotland. And guess what? There are more seats in England, so, like I say, it's over.
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