Everyone is postulating a hung Parliament this morning, and what might the Lid Dems do.The short answer is I have no idea, but I do know it won't be a hung parliament.
My reason for saying this is simple. All the calculations "guessing" seat numbers ( Baxter et al) do NOT take into account Scotland and Wales as quite different calculations - at least, as far as I know. If you know different, please tell me.
My point is that the number of seats held by Labour in these two countires is not going to be significantly different - lots of extra Labour votes will effectively go to waste as they already have and will keep the seats. But the perrenial middle classes in England will vote massively against NuLabour. So in reality, the 6%Tory lead gap is probably minus 5% in Scotland and Wales but plus 11% in England. This will have profound constitutional implications in the future. As I have said , Old Labour will be back merged into the LibDems in the future, or completely out of touch as they were in the 80's
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