Sunday, April 15, 2007

Scottish Elections

I've just met a friend in the park who is a senior MSP of the Labourite persuasion. The fact he owns a couple of million pounds worth of properties is not, in his eyes, a disqualification for being Labour.
He says that the truth for May 3rd is that something like 50% more people are undecided than last time. Many will still vote Labour under protest. Many will abstain. But many more will not vote SNP because that is not what they believe in. If anything, Labour's supporters are the most principled ( LibDems will do anything, Scottish Tories still need to sort themselves out, SNP only has a relatively small number of REAL separatists) and hence will not go to SNP.Tommy Sheridan's double incarnation will almost certainly cancel itself out.
This particular MSP is an extremely hard working member of his tribe, and does lots of good things for the community. It should see him through.
So my view of little change after May 3rd looks not too far from the eventual results.
At this stage.
It could all change if something goes seriously wrong in Westminster.
Down south, I expect a major defeat for Labour, however they care to dress it up, which just may make Gordon Brown's future less secure.

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